The Humphrey School of Public Affairs has announced a new partnership with the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) to advance research on the undocumented immigrant population in the United States and how immigration patterns are shaped by government policies.
This collaboration follows the release of CMS’s most recent undocumented population estimates report on immigration, which estimates that 12.2 million undocumented immigrants were living in the U.S. in 2023. The estimate is based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS), conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, and continues CMS’s decade-long work in documenting immigrant populations.
“In a time of widespread misinformation about undocumented immigrants, the Humphrey School is joining forces with CMS to compile and analyze evidence-based estimates of the country’s undocumented population,” said Ryan Allen, associate dean for research and a professor of urban planning at the School.
CMS is an educational institute devoted to the study of international migration, the promotion of understanding between immigrants and receiving communities, and public policies that safeguard the dignity and rights of migrants, refugees, and newcomers.
“Understanding the size, demographics, and contributions of undocumented immigrants in the United States is essential to building humane and responsible immigration policy,” said Mario Russell, CMS executive director.
“For more than a decade, CMS has worked to produce reliable data and analysis on the undocumented population, and we are thrilled to be partnering with the Humphrey School to build on this vital work," he added. "In this deeply challenging time of mass deportations and volatile political and social discourse, we are particularly motivated to create accurate, accessible data resources for the wider public.”
Immigration trends
Key findings of CMS’s latest undocumented population estimates report include:
- The total undocumented population in the U.S. increased by two million to reach 12.2 million from 2020 to 2023, after declining by 800,000 from 2013 to 2020.
- The population from Central America grew by 1.2 million from 2013 to 2023.
- The population from South America almost doubled in three years — from 820,000 in 2020 to 1.5 million in 2023.
- Undocumented population growth accelerated for Central American countries beginning in 2019; rapid growth in undocumented residents from South American countries began in 2021.
- The undocumented population increased in all the top six states from 2020 to 2023, but California and Illinois had fewer undocumented residents in 2023 than in 2013. Florida, New York, and New Jersey were the fastest-growing states from 2020 to 2023.
CMS has compiled this data on immigration trends in the U.S. every year since 2013. Allen collaborated on producing the 2023 estimates and will continue to produce annual estimates going forward.
Deeper analysis
The two parties began discussions several months ago to explore how the Humphrey School could do deeper and more impactful analysis of the data, to better understand immigration patterns and how they are affected by changing government policies.
One result of the collaboration is an online data tool (created in partnership with the U-Spatial team at the University of Minnesota) that allows users to more easily access estimates of undocumented immigrant populations at the national and state levels, as well as characteristics such as country of origin, age, employment status, income, and other data points.
Through this partnership, the Humphrey School and CMS will work jointly to:
- Analyze trends in migration and residency patterns
- Study the economic, social, and policy impacts of undocumented immigration
- Produce evidence-based insights to inform immigration policy at the local, state, and federal levels
“There are literally dozens of questions that could be examined,” said Allen. “For example, the Trump administration has gone back and forth on immigration enforcement among agricultural workers—a large percentage of whom are undocumented. Detaining those workers will lead to problems in the food supply chain. So let's shed some light on this. How many people are we talking about? What kind of profile do they have? That could help inform the national debate.”
The partnership aims to generate deeper, policy-relevant insights into the demographics, labor roles, geographic distribution, and economic contributions of undocumented populations.
The larger goal, according to both CMS and the Humphrey School, is to make the data and accompanying analysis widely accessible—to scholars, policymakers, journalists, and the public—to better inform debates and decisions on immigration policy.
"This partnership aligns perfectly with the Humphrey School’s mission to pursue equitable, data-driven public policy, and its commitment to humanitarianism – one of the priorities in the School’s Constellations of M(pact) initiative,” Allen said. "By working alongside CMS, we hope to bring new clarity to one of the most complex and pressing issues in American public life."
