NEW RESEARCH POINTS TO A POSSIBLE THIRD PARTY IMPACT IN 2008
Third parties may determine the outcome of the 2008 presidential contest between the presumptive Democratic and Republican Party candidates, Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain, according to new research from the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance.
In a careful review of recent presidential and statewide elections, CSPG researchers found that two central findings may provide the key to the 2008 presidential race:
- Third party candidates have enjoyed persistent success in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections since the 1990s. These results may be leading indicators of voter inclination to vote for a third party presidential candidate.
- Third party candidates may impact the Obama-McCain contest by shaping the debate and, more dramatically, by playing King Maker by capitalizing on third party successes in as many as 28 state-wide races in 2006.
The full study is available online. Find more analysis on the center's Smart Politics blog.
July 7, 2008
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