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Basin-Scale Leakage Risks from Geologic Carbon Sequestration:
Impact on CCS Energy Market Competitiveness
Elizabeth Wilson , Principle Investigator and Assistant Professor
Melisa Pollak, Project Manager and Research Fellow
Joseph Dammel, Research Assistant
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is a technology that has the potential to reduce the emissions of climate change-causing carbon dioxide. Large sources of carbon dioxide including, but not limited to, coal-fired power plants, are candidates for this suite of technologies. The basic process is as follows: carbon dioxide is separated from the flue gas and compressed on-site. It is then transported, most likely via pipeline, to an injection site, where it is pumped underground for long-term storage. [1] Although CCS has great potential, several barriers, including cost, efficiency, and risk, have thus far prevented widespread adoption.
This project focuses on bridging the gap between scientists and public and private decision makers by bounding scientific understanding of CCS within an economic and legal framework. Over the next three years, researchers from the University of Minnesota, Princeton University, and Brookhaven National Laboratory will study energy market competitiveness of CCS technology by incorporating potential leakage of carbon dioxide and the resultant costs due to liability from interference with other subsurface activities and losses in carbon credits into an energy market model. The objective of this project is to provide insight at both the project level, and at the society-wide level to decision makers weighing the benefits and risks of CCS technology for our energy future.
The project will use the Michigan Basin as a case study, using geologic and hydrologic data from studies conducted by the Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership and the Western Michigan University. Researchers at Princeton will use this data to build upon a model that estimates carbon dioxide leakage from aquifers. A novel aspect to this project will be the addition of geochemistry to the Princeton model, which now uses pressure and rock characteristics as inputs. When complete, the model will provide a better understanding of long-term leakage risks of carbon dioxide – an important tool for decision makers assessing CCS.
Humphrey School researchers will examine the potential for injected carbon dioxide to impact other subsurface activities, such as oil and gas extraction, natural gas storage, waste injection, or groundwater extraction. They will construct a 3-d GIS model of the Michigan basin to show various current subsurface activities. The carbon dioxide leakage model will be added to run different scenarios to study the interaction of the injected carbon dioxide with other underground activities. Results from past legal disputes will help to predict a range of potential legal damages incurred by future carbon dioxide leakage events. When integrated, the results from the GIS model and legal findings will shed light on the risks faced by future decision makers.
Brookhaven National Laboratory will then synthesize the findings as inputs into an economic energy model. This model will perform sensitivity analyses on a wide range of criteria to predict how CCS will perform in the future energy market.
[1] Summary of process from “Carbon Capture and Storage R&D Overview.” U.S. Dept. of Energy. Internet on-line. Accessed 16 February 2010. Available here.
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