Bicycling and Nonmotorized Transportation

Measurement and Forecasting

Betz, Carter, John Bergstrom and J.M. Bowker (2003). A Contingent Trip Model for Estimating Rail-Trail Demand. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 46, 1: 79-96.  This paper develops a contingent trip model to estimate the recreation demand for and value of a potential rail-trail site in northeast Georgia. Instead of using travel cost modeling, the authors use their model for ex-ante evaluation of recreation resource proposals or management alternatives.

Davis, Gary A. and Trina Wicklatz (2001), Sample Based Estimation of Bicycle Miles of Travel. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.  This project provides a statistically defensible estimate of bicycle-miles of travel (BMT) for at a least substantial portion of the Twin Cities region and assesses the feasibility of monitoring bicycle volumes using sampling methods similar to those used to monitor motor vehicle traffic.

Dill, Jennifer and Theresa Carr (2002). Bicycle Commuting and Facilities in Major U.S. Cities: If You Build Them, Commuters Will Use Them - Another Look. Portland State University, Portland.  Study confirms findings that cities with higher levels of bicycle infrastructure also have higher levels of bicycle commuting. Analysis of cross-sectional data from 35 U.S. cities supports the finding that new bicycle lanes will be used by commuters.

Turner, Shawn, Aaron Hottenstein and Gordon Shunk (1997), Bicycle and Pedestrian Travel Demand Forecasting: Literature Review. TX-1723-1. Texas Transportation Institute, College Station.  Literature review of bicycle and pedestrian travel demand forecasting practices.

Turner, Shawn, Gordon Shunk and Aaron Hottenstein (1998), Development of a Methodology to Estimate Bicycle and Pedestrian Travel Demand. 1723-S. Texas Transportation Institute, College Station.  This report summarizes research activities conducted to develop a bicycle and pedestrian travel demand forecasting methodology. The appendix of this report contains guidelines for estimating bicycle and pedestrian travel demand based upon the type and intensity of land uses adjacent to a study corridor. Since little information or data on bicycle and pedestrian travel demand forecasting were available in Texas, the research team developed a sketch planning methodology by collecting and analyzing bicycle and pedestrian trip survey data at eight urban locations in four different cities in Texas. The bicycle/pedestrian survey data that were collected included specific information about individual trip origins and destinations, trip lengths, trip purpose, and trip frequency. These data, in conjunction with supporting information from other locations, were used to develop bicycle and pedestrian trip generation rates. Bicycle and pedestrian volumes obtained during the survey data collection were used to test and validate the sketch planning method described in this report.

U.S. Department of Transportation (1999), Guidebook on Methods to Estimate Non-Motorized Travel. FJWA-RD-98-166. U.S. Department of Transportation, McLean.  This two-volume guidebook describes and compares the various methods and tools that can be used to forecast non-motorized travel demand or that otherwise support the prioritization and analyses of bicycle and pedestrian facilities. The guidebook is intended for use by bicycle and pedestrian planners, technical staff, researchers, advocates, and others who may wish to estimate bicycle and pedestrian travel demand or to prioritize bicycle and pedestrian projects.