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The Crisis of Polling:
The Accuracy, Reporting, and Campaign Uses of Public Opinion Surveys
Monday February 27, 2005
Center for the Study of Politics and Governance
Hubert H. Humphrey Institute
University of Minnesota
Polling was one of the biggest casualties of the 2004 presidential campaign and the 2006 election cycle appears likely to renew the assault. The proliferation of polls, press preoccupation with polling, and the campaign strategy of attacking pollsters have contributed to a sense among journalists and many Americans that polls cannot be trusted.
But is this impression correct? Are pre-election polls inaccurate? Are reporters merely the conveyors bad polling or do they contribute to mistaken conclusions about what polls show? Are campaign consultants victims of poor polling or consumers who use them to gain strategic advantages over their opponent?
This conference examines the central criticisms of polling – their accuracy, the media’s coverage of them, and their use by election campaigns. It offers original, cutting edge analysis and commentary from the country’s leading experts on polling, media coverage, and election campaigns.
Registration / Refreshments
11:15 am
Introduction
Noon-12: 15pm
Lawrence R. Jacobs (University of Minnesota), “Polling Politics and Campaigns” (PDF document, 32KB)
I. Accuracy of Polling
12:15pm-1:30pm
Moderator: Wendy Rahn
Michael W. Traugott (University of Michigan), “The Accuracy of the National Pre-election Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election” (PDF document, 104 KB)
Frank Newport (The Gallup Poll), “Pollsters Under Attack: 2004 Election Incivility and its Consequences” ( PDF document, 80 KB)
Discussants: Tim Penny (co-director, Policy Forum) and Joanne Miller (University of Minnesota)
II. Mis-Reporting of Polling
1:30pm-2:30pm
Moderator and Discussant: Don Shelby (WCCO TV)
Tom Hamburger (Los Angeles Times), "What the Polls Won't Tell You"
Eric Black (Minneapolis Star Tribune), "Uses and Abuses of Polling"
Break
2:30pm-2:45pm
III. Polling and Campaigning
2:45pm-4:00pm
Moderator and Discussant: Robert Y. Shapiro (Columbia University)
Donald P. Green (Yale University), “Grassroots Mobilization and Voter Turnout in 2004” (PDF document, 400 KB)
Steve Schier (Carleton College), “Aiming a Rifle and Missing Millions: Campaign Polling in Contemporary Politics” (PDF document, 88KB)
Discussant: Tom Horner (Himle Horner Public Relations)and Kathryn Pearson (University of Minnesota)
IV. Closing Comments
Robert Y. Shapiro (Columbia University)
Lawrence R. Jacobs (University of Minnesota)
CO-SPONSORS:
The Minnesota Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists
Public Opinion Quarterly
The American Association for Public Opinion Research
Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota
The Minnesota News Council
This conference is based on a special issue of Public Opinion Quarterly. More information about the special issue can be found at: http://www.oxfordjournals.org/poq/special.html
Registration information
To register, please email cspg@hhh.umn.edu with name, address, telephone number, and email address by Feb 23rd, 2006. Put “Polling conference registration” in subject line of email. Conference cost: $25 payable in advance or at the door. Checks must be made to “University of Minnesota”. If sending in advance, send to: Jennifer Thompson, Coordinator, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey Institute, 301 19th Avenue South, Room 138-D, Minneapolis, MN 55455
For parking and directions, please see: www.hhh.umn.edu/about/contact/parking.html
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