About the Survey - October

About the Dataset

Conducted: October 21 – October 25, 2010
Completions: 751 likely voters
Modes used: telephone

Sampling

The sample of telephone exchanges called was randomly selected by a computer from a list of active residential exchanges within the State of Minnesota. Within each exchange, random digits were added to form a complete telephone number, thus permitting access to both listed and unlisted numbers. Within each household, one adult was selected to be the respondent for the survey.

Response Rate

The response rate for the survey was 29%, calculated using the Response Rate 4 formula developed by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (http://www.aapor.org/Standard_Definitions1/1824.htm).

Likely Voter Model

Results are based on a model that accounts for the likelihood of a respondent voting based on the following factors: self-reported probability of voting in the upcoming election, voting in the 2006 gubernatorial election as reported by the respondent, interest in the 2010 election, and whether the respondent reported being registered to vote. The general model projects a turnout of 58%. A model that projects a turnout of 71% yielded similar results.

The key characteristics of the sample’s likely voters in Minnesota are the following:

	Likely Voters
	Republican	38%
	Independent	16%
	Democrat	45%

	Men	47%
	Women	53%

	High Shcool or less or Some College	52%
	College Graduate or Postgraduate Training	48%

	Less than $50,000	41%
	More than $50,000	59%

(Percentages here and above may round to higher than 100% due to rounding.)

Weights Summary

As is common with public opinion surveys, the data were weighted. In the first stage, the data were weighted based on the number of potential survey respondents and the number of landline telephone numbers in the household. In the second stage, data were weighted according to cell phone usage, as well as gender, age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity to approximate the demographic characteristics of the population according to the Census.

How To Cite

The poll resulted from a collaboration of Minnesota Public Radio News and the Humphrey School. Its analysis and this report were prepared by Lawrence Jacobs and Joanne Miller.

Citation of the Report is the following: Humphrey School Survey, University of Minnesota. (http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/). THE 2010 OCTOBER MINNESOTA SURVEY [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance [producer and distributor].