Reports:

The Center for the Study of Politics and Governance generates non-partisan reports throughout the election season and beyond analyzing the latest buzz on policy issues, statewide and district races, and other important political attitudes.

2008 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003

2008

December 2, 2008. Economic 9/11 Ignites Consumer Insecurity, Retrenchment, and Support for Regulation

The recent financial crisis and economic downturn have reshaped the behavior and attitudes of Minnesotan consumers. A series of surveys of Minnesotans in 2004 and throughout 2008 (including a recent poll in late October) reveals significant consumer insecurity, a retrenchment of spending that is draconian in certain respects, and openness to expanded government intervention and regulation. These results reflect and expand on recent reports of significant declines in consumer spending and consumer confidence.

November 26, 2008. Unlocking the Challenged Ballots in U.S. Senate Recount

The process of determining the winner of the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota may become a three act play. We are approaching the end of the first act in which the ballots cast on Election Day or before are recounted. The second act will involve decisions by the State Canvassing Board about the ballots that are challenged by the campaigns during the recount. Battles over absentee ballots may be the third act. This report offers some clues about the second act.

November 20, 2008. Potential for Change in the Senate Recount

The recount in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Senator Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken begins after a lively debate about what seemed like large changes in the vote count since Election Day and concerns of a "bias" that has unfairly advantaged Franken. Coleman's lead has declined from a 762 vote margin on the morning following Election Day to a 215 vote advantage in the official count. Why are the vote tabulations changing? Why are they consistently changing in a way that hurts Coleman rather than being evenly distributed?

October 31, 2008. Democrats Lead in Elections for the State Legislature and Congress

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute study of likely Minnesota voters, Democrats continue to enjoy double digit leads in the battle for federal and state legislative seats. Likely voters indicate that they are more likely to choose an unnamed Democratic candidate over an unnamed Republican candidate by 16 points in state legislative races and 20 points in congressional contests.

October 31, 2008. Backlash Gives Franken Slight Edge, Coleman Lifted by Centrism and Faith Vote

The latest Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll finds that the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken holds a slight 4 point edge over Republican Senator Norm Coleman, which is within the margin of error and therefore is a toss-up. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley received 17 percent. The contest has remained close since mid-August even as Barkley’s support has increased and the number of undecided voters has declined.

October 30, 2008. Obama Surges by Building Broad Support and Eroding McCain Strengths

The latest Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll shows Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama with his largest lead of the campaign over his Republican rival John McCain, 56% to 37%. Senator Obama’s 19 point advantage doubles the lead he enjoyed earlier this month and before the August party conventions.

October 24, 2008. Voters Turn On Bachmann while Strongly Supporting Coleman

Michele Bachmann's controversial comments that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama "may have anti-American views" have put in jeopardy her campaign for re-election in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, according to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll. Bachmann narrowly trails her Democratic rival, Elwyn Tinklenberg, 45 percent to 43 percent, which is within the margin of error and therefore should be considered a toss-up. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson received 5 percent; 7 percent did not indicate support for a candidate. In 2006, Bachmann won the election by 8 points over her Democratic rival Patty Wetterling (50 percent to 42 percent).

October 22, 2008. The Unregistered: Voter Registration Declines in Many States

The presidential campaigns and press have highlighted the rise in voter registration during the 2008 campaign. The optimistic storyline misses, however, the large number of states that have seen their voter rolls decline or stagnate since 2004. The surge of registration has been highly concentrated in the states that the presidential campaigns have most intensely targeted.

October 20, 2008. Will Governor Pawlenty Become Irrelevant? DFL Close to Override Majority

Here is the biggest sleeper story of the 2008 elections: the DFL may win enough seats in the Minnesota House of Representatives to build a majority large enough to override Governor Tim Pawlenty's veto. If the DFL can win 5 net pick-ups in the fall election, the Democrats would neuter the Governor's veto and greatly diminish his influence on the legislative process.

October 9, 2008. Economic Turmoil Generates New Agenda and Emerging Consensus on Government

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute study of likely Minnesota voters, the turmoil in the financial sector and broader economy appears to be reshaping the agenda of issues that concern Minnesotans, giving rise to what may be initial steps toward a new consensus about the government's role and providing a modest boost to the Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama.

October 9, 2008. Minnesota State Politics: Battles Over Constitution and State House

One of most heated battles in Minnesota politics is over a proposed amendment to the state's constitution to raise the sales tax to pay for outdoors and arts projects in Minnesota. Historically, only about half of constitutional amendments are enacted in Minnesota because they require a majority of everyone casting a ballot during the election, not just a majority of those voting on the amendment. Voters who make a choice for a presidential or senatorial candidate but skip the amendment are, in effect, voting against its ratification. The rule of thumb is that passage of constitutional amendments usually requires majorities of about 60 percent to win ratification.

October 8, 2008. Coleman Lead Neutralized by Financial Crisis and Polarizing Presidential Politics

According to two Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute polls, Republican U.S. Senator Norm Coleman’s 9 point lead over Democrat Al Franken and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkely was neutralized by the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the polarizing reaction to the Vice Presidential debate on October 2nd. In the three days before October 2nd, Coleman enjoyed a 9 point lead (40 percent versus 31 percent for Franken and 14 percent for Barkley); in the three days after October 2nd, which included congressional enactment of the $700 billion financial rescue on October 3rd and the polarizing reaction to the Vice Presidential debate, Franken took a 4 point lead (41 percent versus 37 percent for Coleman and 14 percent for Barkely). Franken’s edge was within the margin of error of 4.8 points; the race should be considered a statistical toss-up.

October 7, 2008. Obama Propelled by Financial Crisis and Vice Presidential Debate

According to two Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute polls, the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the Vice Presidential debate propelled the Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama from a narrow 4 point lead (47 percent to 43 percent) to a 14 point advantage among likely voters in Minnesota (54 percent to 40 percent).

September 14, 2008. Obama Leads But Race Remains Fluid with Possible McCain Lift from Choosing Pawlenty

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads his Republican counterpart, John McCain, 48% to 38% among likely Minnesota voters.  Three percent favor Ralph Nader and 1% supports Libertarian Bob Barr. Despite Obama’s lead, the race remains fluid: 10% are undecided; a bit more than 10% of Obama’s and McCain’s backers indicate that they may change their mind; and half of Nader’s supporters and three quarters of Barr’s say they too may switch to another candidate.

August 26, 2008. Third Party Option Attractive to Minnesotans

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, politically significant segments of voters are supporting third party candidates for President and U.S. Senate, and supermajorities of likely Minnesotan voters would consider voting for third party candidates. Although no third party candidate appears poised to win at this point, they are drawing enough support to play the role of King Maker by drawing enough support from one candidate to allow the other to win a close contest.

August 25, 2008. Free Thinking Minnesota: Approval of Governor and Opposition to New Sales Tax but Support for Democrats in State Legislative Races and Doubts About Lt. Governor

Despite lingering perceptions of Minnesota as a “lock” for the Democratic Party and supportive of "big government," the political attitudes of Minnesotan voters are not so clear cut.

August 22, 2008. U.S. Senate Race is a Toss Up: Anti-Republican Winds Help Franken, Coleman Bolstered by Swing Voters and Centrism

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, the DFL endorsed candidate Al Franken is locked in a close race with incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Norm Coleman. Forty-one percent support Franken and 40% support Coleman, well within the margin of error (+/-3.6 percentage points). Eight percent support contending Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.

July 7, 2008. The Third Party Impact in 2008

Third parties may determine the outcome of the 2008 presidential contest between the presumptive Democratic and Republican Party candidates, Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. Elections in statewide races around the country indicate significant potential support for runs by Libertarian nominee Bob Barr, Ralph Nader, or possibly other candidates.

May 5 , 2008. The Big Mobilization: Increased Voter Registration in 2008 (including North Carolina and Indiana)

The 2008 contests for the Republican and Democratic Party presidential nominations have been a boon for American democracy. The intense competition for nomination combined with investments in mobilizing voters for primaries and caucuses has fuelled an historic surge in voter registration compared to its level during the 2004 nomination contests.

April 2, 2008. The Ventura Legacy: Solidified and Stronger Third Parties

Jesse Ventura ran in the 1998 governor's election as a rebel intent on breaking the hold of the two party system on government. Yet, critics charged that Governor Ventura failed to convert his personal following into a lasting legacy of third party strength in Minnesota.

February 25, 2008. Making History: Governor Pawlenty's Transportation Veto and A Legislative Override

Governor Tim Pawlenty's veto on February 22nd of a controversial transportation bill has set the stage for the DFL-controlled legislature to attempt an override. Governor Pawlenty has deployed the veto more often than all but 2 of his predecessors over the past 70 years, but a rare override by the legislature would also make the record books.

February 5, 2008. The Political Battle for Minnesota's Suburbs

"The" suburbs are often lumped together and treated as an undifferentiated monolith. Folks who live in the suburbs are assumed to be predominantly Republican and conservative. A Humphrey Institute and Minnesota Public Radio News poll conducted between January 20 and January 27, 2008 reveals significant differences between the suburbs and the urban core but also within the suburbs themselves.

February 3, 2008. Approval for Governor but Not Legislature

Minnesotans approve of the performance of Governor Tim Pawlenty but are split on the legislature's job, according to a Humphrey Institute and Minnesota Public Radio News poll.

February 2, 2008. Domestic Issues Dominate Campaign but Democrats and Republicans Differ

According to a Humphrey Institute and Minnesota Public Radio News poll, Minnesotan Democrats and Republicans are focused on the home front but differ in important respects.

January 29, 2008. Minnesota's Transportation Challenges: Disapproval of Molnau and Division on Gas Tax

Minnesotans are unsettled when it comes to getting the state's transportation system working, according to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll conducted between January 20 and January 27, 2008.

January 29, 2008. Senator Coleman's Battle for Re-Election: A Tenuous Approval Rating and Franken's Challenge

Senator Norm Coleman's bid for re-election faces some challenges even as he remains a formidable candidate, according to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll conducted between January 20 and January 27, 2008.

January 29, 2008. Minnesota Contests for Democratic and Republican Presidential Nominations

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll conducted between January 20 and January 27, 2008, Republicans are rallying around John McCain's campaign, while Hillary Clinton holds a more narrow lead among Democrats.

January 24, 2008. "It's the Delegates, Stupid." February 5th Primaries Are Historic First

The 2008 presidential elections are making history - creating a truly national race with heavily populated states and states with higher a higher proportion of non-white voters weighing in on the nominee selection process more than in any battle for the White House during the past generation.

2006

November 6, 2006. Democrats Poised to Pick Up Seats in Wisconsin State Legislature

Democrats appear poised to pick up seats in the Republican-controlled Wisconsin legislature. Republicans need to defend a much larger pool of open and competitive seats in both the state Assembly and Senate.

November 6, 2006. Battle for Control of the Iowa State Legislature

A district-level study of competitiveness suggests democrats hold an advantage in breaking the evenly split Iowa state Senate as well as winning seats and gaining control of the state House of Representatives.

November 3, 2006. Democrats Hold Advantage in Battle for the Minnesota Statehouse

Minnesota will host most of the competitive state legislative races in the Upper Midwest, creating the potential for significant turnover in both chambers and for a change in party control of the House.

November 2, 2006. The One Dimensional Voter: Foreign Policy Tops Voter Concerns

An analysis of the public's ranking of what they see as the most important problem facing the country since 1950 demonstrates that 1966 was the last mid-term election in which foreign policy was as dominant as it is today.

November 1, 2006. Klobuchar Builds Commanding Lead in U.S. Senate Race

With only a week before Election Day, Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, has widened her lead over her Republican opponent, Mark Kennedy, to 22 percentage points, 55 percent to 33 percent.

October 31, 2006. Hatch Opens Narrow Lead Over Pawlenty

Even though the race remains too close to call, Attorney General Mike Hatch has opened up a narrow 6 point lead over Governor Tim Pawlenty, 45 percent to 39 percent, with just over a week before Election Day.

October 16, 2006. A Tradition of Split Ticket Voting

The popular lore is that Americans and Minnesotans are sharply divided into Republican "red" and Democratic "blue." Although the divisions are clear, there are also a significant number of voters who cross party lines and vote for a Democrat and a Republican.

October 9, 2006. Minnesota Voters Turnout

Minnesota leads the country in voter participation. Although turnout in non- presidential election years is noticeably lower than during presidential election years, Minnesotans are still more engaged in "off year" elections than citizens in other states.

September 21, 2006. The Bush Drag: Kennedy Trails Klobuchar in U.S. Senate Race

The Democratic Party nominee for U.S. Senate, Amy Klobuchar, holds a commanding 52 to 36 point advantage over the Republican Party nominee, Mark Kennedy, according to a Humphrey Institute survey of 1,023 Minnesota likely voters in the week following the primary.

September 20, 2006. Gubernatorial Toss Up in Bread and Butter Campaign

Governor Tim Pawlenty and Attorney General Mike Hatch are tied in what is shaping up as a classic bread and butter campaign, according to a survey of 1,023 Minnesota likely voters in the week following the primary.

June 15, 2006. The Ventura Legacy: Solidified and Stronger Third Parties

Election data from 1998-2004 challenges the conventional wisdom that Ventura failed to convert his personal following into a lasting legacy of third party strength in Minnesota.

2005

November 3, 2005. Divided Minnesota: The Gulf of Race and Income in Minneapolis and Saint Paul

Minnesotans like to think of themselves as part of one broad community. A new poll of likely voters in Minneapolis and St. Paul reveals a gulf between how whites and non-whites view their communities, their choice of the next mayor, and the city's priorities regarding race and income.

November 2, 2005. Partisan Backlash Against Kelly Propels Coleman

Challenger Chris Coleman enjoys a huge 35 point advantage over incumbent mayor Randy Kelly (61% to 26%) among likely voters in St Paul. No incumbent mayor of St. Paul has lost a reelection bid in over three decades.

November 1, 2005. Rybak Enjoys Lead in 2005 Minneapolis Mayor Race

Incumbent Mayor R. T. Rybak enjoys a 9 point advantage among likely voters over his challenger, Hennepin County Commissioner Peter McLaughlin (44% to 35%).

October 11, 2005. The Incumbent Advantage in Twin Cities Mayoral Races: The Economy is Good and Crime May Not Drive Voters

Mayoral elections in the Twin Cities are generally kind to incumbents. Since the early 1970s, 6 incumbents have run for reelection in St. Paul and none have lost. In Minneapolis, the incumbent has won 4 out of the last 5 elections dating back to 1981.

September 19, 2005. Don't Be Fooled by the Primary Results: Mayoral Races in St. Paul and Minneapolis Remain Wide Open

Chris Coleman's lopsided victory over the incumbent mayor, Randy Kelly, in the St. Paul primary on September 13th has created the mistaken impression that a major upset is on the way. The electorate on November will be much larger and quite a bit different. Similar caution should be used in the Minneapolis election after Mayor R.T. Rybak's victory over Peter McLaughlin.

September 15, 2005. Mayoral Primaries Set the Stage for Competitive Fall Elections

The big story in the September 13th Twin Cities mayoral races was not who qualified to move on to the general election this fall - the major candidates all survived. The surprise was that DFL-endorsed Chris Coleman (51.5%) nearly received double the number of votes than incumbent Randy C. Kelly (26.6%) in the St. Paul race.

August 25, 2005. Twin Cities Mayoral Historical Overview

In the nearly century and a half of mayoral elections in the Twin Cities, today's contests stand out for their competitiveness in Minneapolis races and the DFL dominance in both cities.

2004

November 25, 2004. "Moral Values" Take Back Seat to Partisanship and the Economy in 2004 Presidential Election

The initial conclusion of media commentators that moral values determined the outcome of the 2004 presidential election was off the mark, neglecting the impacts of partisanship and the economy. The Republican Party made important strides in widening its coalition. On the other hand, early conclusions that the Democratic Party's coalition dooms it to defeat are premature; the Party continues to have solid bases of support that put it in a competitive position.

November 1, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup

The 2004 Elections Project began nearly one year ago on the premise that the race for the presidency would be fought and won in the Upper Midwest. With the election one day out, nothing has been decided - including which candidate will take the 27 highly prized electoral votes in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

October 30, 2004. Bush Opens Lead Among Protestants, Catholics, and the Religiously Active

President George W. Bush has made significant headway in locking down the support of large religious groups and reversing the advantage that Democrats once enjoyed among some of these critical voting blocks.

October 30, 2004. Kerry Opens Leads Among Youngest and Older Voters; Middle-Aged Voters Prefer Bush

The presidential election has bared glaring divides between the generations. The youngest and oldest Americans are rallying behind Senator John Kerry, while younger middle-aged voters strongly support President George W. Bush.

October 29, 2004. Here Come the Third Parties: Gaining Access to the Presidential Ballot

Third party presidential candidates are successfully fighting through obstacles to gain ballot access in the great majority of states. Three third party candidates are on three-dozen or more state ballots, with candidates from two other minor parties also winning access in a dozen or more states.

October 29, 2004. Kerry and Bush Battle for Rural Voters

The presidential contest in the Upper Midwest is deadlocked, with the decisions of rural voters likely to tip the outcome. President George W. Bush has opened a double digit lead in the Minnesota countryside, while Senator John Kerry has fought to a draw in Iowa and Wisconsin. Kerry dominates in urban areas, while the Bush advantage lies in the suburbs - though it has considerably narrowed in Minnesota.

October 27, 2004. Nader and Libertarian Play King Makers in Deadlocked Minnesotan Race

President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry remain deadlocked in Minnesota, with third party candidates drawing the support of 6 percent of likely voters. Kerry is most hurt by the support for Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Michael Badnarik, though some Bush backers are drawn to the third party candidates as well.

October 25, 2004. Crucial Votes in the Race for President: Independent Voters in the Upper Midwest

With both the Democratic and Republican parties firmly shoring up their base, George W. Bush and John Kerry are focusing their efforts down the home stretch on broadening their appeal to the voters who are independent. Although the number of independents who remain uncommitted to a candidate has shrunk, the independent vote will determine who wins the election.

October 20, 2004. Bush and Kerry Deadlocked in Wisconsin

Senator John Kerry has moved into a statistical tie with President George W. Bush among likely voters in Wisconsin, according to the Humphrey Institute Survey.

October 18, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup

The battle for the presidency continues to be closely fought in the Upper Midwest. President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry and their families regularly visit Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and media advertising buys in these states are among the 10 largest in the country.

October 7, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup

The race for president remains extremely tight in two Upper Midwestern states - Iowa and Minnesota - based on polls taken after the presidential and vice presidential debates. Polls before the debates showed that President George W. Bush enjoyed double-digit leads over John Kerry in both Wisconsin and South Dakota. These races may have tightened up after the debates.

October 5, 2004. Kerry Pulls Even in Humphrey Survey of Iowa Voters

After Republicans successfully damaged Senator John Kerry's presidential campaign during August, the Democratic candidate has pulled even with President George W. Bush. The second survey of voters in Iowa by the Humphrey Institute shows that the first presidential debate sharply narrowed Bush's advantage on his signature issue (handling terrorism).

October 1, 2004. 2004 Presidential Election Too Close to Be Forecast

Social scientists have developed sophisticated models for forecasting the outcome of presidential elections based on measures of economic conditions and the overall political standing of the incumbent during the summer of the election year.

September 1, 2004. Third Party Heartland

As the 2004 election season heats up, the attention of journalists and political observers is focused on the contests between the two major political parties. Missed is the persistent strength of third parties in recent state and national elections in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South Dakota.

August 24, 2004. Candidates in the Spotlight: Legislative Races to Watch in the Upper Midwest in 2004

The presidential contest between President George W. Bush and Democratic nominee Senator John Kerry will dominate news reports on the election season. Under the radar screen are critical battles for control of Congress and state legislatures.

August 17, 2004. Candidates in the Spotlight: The Presidential Race In The Upper Midwest

The outcome of the 2004 presidential election will be determined in a dozen or so battleground states including three key states in the Upper Midwest: Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

August 10, 2004. Candidates in the Spotlight: 2004 State House Races to Watch in Minnesota

The Minnesota campaigns for the state's House of Representatives are unusually important and prominent in an election year with no state senate or gubernatorial races. Republicans seek to maintain the majority the party has held since the 1998 election while the DFL needs to pick up 15 seats and lose none to take control of the House.

August 1, 2004. Policy Brief: National Guard and Reserves. The Burden On U.S. Army Reserves and Army National Guard

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have placed a burden on all the U.S. military services, most notably the Army's 500,000 troops. Almost 140,000 U.S. military personnel are in Iraq, with more than 15,000 in Afghanistan and 30,000 in Kuwait. Many of the remaining U.S. troops are committed to service in Germany and South Korea as well as to peacekeeping operations in the Balkans.

July 22, 2004. Rare for an Election Year: In 2004, Foreign Policy Matters

Why are Republicans dwelling on John Edwards's lack of foreign policy experience while Democrats focus on Dick Cheney's role in making the now discredited case for war in Iraq? The answer: For the first time in 30 years, foreign policy matters.

July 21, 2004. Humphrey Survey: The Upper Midwest Battleground

After largely ignoring the Upper Midwest in his 2000 campaign, President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are showering attention on Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. While any of these states can tip a deadlocked election, the region's 27 Electoral College votes is equal to Florida's and greater than Ohio's (20).

July 1, 2004. Narrow Gender Gap in Upper Midwest

Much has been made during the 2004 election campaign of the divide between the political parties, with most of the country designated "blue" or "red" states. Geography, however, is not the only cleavage. Gender also has been an important divide since 1980.

June 7, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup

Is the Democratic pickup in a special U.S. House election in South Dakota last Tuesday a harbinger of things to come in November? In a crop of May polls, Senator John Kerry holds a very narrow advantage over President George Bush in Minnesota and Iowa.

May 27, 2004. Rumbles on the Prairie: June Primaries in the Upper Midwest

June elections offer an early prelude of the coming political fireworks. South Dakota has a high-profile "special election" for the U.S. House of Representative seat that had been held by Republican William Janklow. The Democrats may pick up this longtime Republican safe seat. Primaries in South Dakota and Iowa will determine the starting line-ups in what could be heated state elections this fall.

May 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Education. Early Trends of the No Child Left Behind Act for Upper Midwestern States

The federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) has helped stimulate improvements in some Midwestern schools and districts, while, at the same time, producing controversies similar to those in other parts of the country.

April 25, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup

Recent polls in the Upper Midwest confirm that the region is closely divided, with some early signs that it may defy past patterns. South Dakotans remain conservative but are currently supporting Democratic nominees in both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate races. Although George W. Bush narrowly lost both Wisconsin and Minnesota in 2000, he enjoys a small lead in Wisconsin and is trailing in Minnesota.

April 20, 2004. Third Party Threat: It's Not Just Nader

The hot topic in handicapping the presidential election is whether independent candidate Ralph Nader will be the spoiler - again - by winning a small but decisive percentage of the vote in an evenly divided country.

April 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Medicare. The Winners and Losers in the New Medicare Sweepstakes

President Bush signed the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 in December following a divided and mostly partisan vote in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The new Medicare legislation presents new challenges for the country and the Upper Midwest where two million beneficiaries live.

March 18, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup

Recent polls in the Upper Midwest show early signs that the 2004 elections may follow the electoral map of past elections - reelection of Senate incumbents in Iowa and Wisconsin and a presidential race that produces South Dakota for the Republicans and Iowa and possibly Minnesota for the Democrats.

March 7, 2004. Americans Support Third Party Candidacies of Jesse Ventura and John McCain

The hot topic in handicapping the presidential election is whether the announced independent candidate Ralph Nader will be the spoiler - again - by winning a small but decisive percentage of the vote in an evenly divided country.

March 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Health Insurance. Implications for the Upper Midwest of Policies to Address Health Insurance Coverage

The United States is one of only a handful of developed countries that does not provide health insurance coverage for all of its citizens. As health care costs continue to rise, the number of uninsured continues to grow, now reaching 44 million American citizens or 14% of the population.

February 25, 2004. Regional Poll Roundup

The 2004 Elections Project is compiling the most comprehensive public opinion data for the 2004 elections in the Upper Midwest. The Poll Roundup assembles the latest results on pairings of candidates, policy issues, and other important political attitudes.

February 22, 2004. Policy Trumps Politics

The conventional wisdom is that voters in Democratic primaries and caucuses are preoccupied with defeating President George W. Bush. Who can beat Bush is all Democratic voters care about.

February 1, 2004. Policy Brief: The Economy. Economic Challenges Facing the Upper Midwest

Even as the country's economy has shown significant improvements overall, the five states in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South and North Dakota) face significant and, in certain respects, unique challenges on several fronts, including job creation and the lack of fiscal stimulus from defense spending.

January 14, 2004. Republican Surge in the Upper Midwest

The Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South Dakota) is becoming increasingly friendly to the Republican Party. In recent elections, the GOP has consistently improved or solidified its position in states across the region.

January 1, 2004. Policy Brief: Welfare Reform. Three Paths to Welfare Reform in the Upper Midwest

Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin represent three distinct paths to welfare reform. Minnesota has focused on promoting work and reducing poverty and Wisconsin has emphasized the reduction of welfare dependency. Michigan has adopted a program model that is between these two approaches.

2003

December 15, 2003. How Nader's Campaign May Hurt Bush's Reelection

Ralph Nader has opened up a Pandora's Box. Although his left of center candidacy poses the most immediate threat to the Democratic Party, it may encourage a third party challenge to the right of center that ends up draining votes from President Bush's reelection campaign.

October 19, 2003. Third-Party Guys, the Real Threat

The handicapping of the 2004 presidential election has so far ignored a potentially key factor - the continuing and perhaps growing appeal of third parties. While the pundits focus on President Bush's chances against a stable of Democratic starters, the election next November is likely to be determined by the Green Party, the Independence Party or - no joke - the Libertarian Party.