The Crisis of Polling: The Accuracy, Reporting, and Campaigning Uses of Public Opinion Surveys

Polling was one of the biggest casualties of the 2004 presidential campaign and the 2006 election cycle appears likely to renew the assault. The proliferation of polls, press preoccupation with polling, and the campaign strategy of attacking pollsters have contributed to a sense among journalists and many Americans that polls cannot be trusted.

But is this impression correct? Are pre-election polls inaccurate? Are reporters merely the conveyors bad polling or do they contribute to mistaken conclusions about what polls show? Are campaign consultants victims of poor polling or consumers who use them to gain strategic advantages over their opponent?

This conference examined the central criticisms of polling - their accuracy, the media’s coverage of them, and their use by election campaigns. It offered original, cutting edge analysis and commentary from the country’s leading experts on polling, media coverage, and election campaigns.

This conference is based on a special issue of Public Opinion Quarterly.

Conference Agenda

Lawrence R. Jacobs (University of Minnesota), "Polling Politics and Campaigns"

Moderator: Wendy Rahn

Michael W. Traugott (University of Michigan), "The Accuracy of the National Pre-election Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election"

Frank Newport (The Gallup Poll), "Pollsters Under Attack: 2004 Election Incivility and its Consequences"

Discussants: Tim Penny (co-director, Policy Forum) and Joanne Miller (University of Minnesota)

Moderator and Discussant: Don Shelby (WCCO TV)

Tom Hamburger (Los Angeles Times), "What the Polls Won't Tell You"

Eric Black (Minneapolis Star Tribune), "Uses and Abuses of Polling"

Moderator and Discussant: Robert Y. Shapiro (Columbia University)

Donald P. Green (Yale University), "Grassroots Mobilization and Voter Turnout in 2004"

Steve Schier (Carleton College), "Aiming a Rifle and Missing Millions: Campaign Polling in Contemporary Politics"

Discussant: Tom Horner (Himle Horner Public Relations) and Kathryn Pearson (University of Minnesota)

Robert Y. Shapiro (Columbia University)
Lawrence R. Jacobs (University of Minnesota)

When

Monday, February 27, 2006
12:00-4:30 p.m.

Where

Cowles Auditorium
Humphrey School of Public Affairs
301 19th Avenue South
Minneapolis, MN 55455

Parking + Directions

More Information

For more information and disability accommodations, please call (612) 625-5340 or
e-mail cspg@umn.edu.

Co-sponsored with The Minnesota Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists, Public Opinion Quarterly, The American Association for Public Opinion Research, Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, and The Minnesota News Council.

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